Kamala's Unrealized Capital Gains Tax: A Threat to America's Economy

 Now if someone's listening to the show and they're like, I think I'm familiar with capital gains and taxes, but like what is an unrealized capital gain? Exactly. I would go so far to say is unrealized capital gains is just theft. Why isn't there pushback, like crazy pushback? Common sense what has always been the policy in the US is that like, okay, but you don't actually pay taxes until you sell. This was done in Norway a couple years ago. So we're not talking theory here. This was done in Norway where just like Kamala's proposing, it was only applied to the top 1%. More people fled Norway. Like literally just left the country with all their money in one year in in 2022, than had previously left in the 13 years combined. The United States economy is, you know, orders of magnitude larger than Norway, so the economic destruction that this would create would have ripple effects across the world. I don't think people realize like how damaging or fragile this could be. What we need in society are more Republicans, conservatives are going to call them that are willing to call out Trump when he's wrong on economic issues. Yes. And what we need are more Democrats, liberals, progressives, whatever you want to label them, who are willing to call out the crazy ideas that Kamala has. It is probably the most crazy policy proposal ever put forward by any presidential candidate ever. If you're watching this and want to grow or become wealthy, like these ideas matter. So we can talk about strategies all day long, but a lot of times strategies are predicated on an environment that allows us to be able to do them. This idea of unrealized capital gains. That's part of Kamala's tax plan. Unrealized capital gains. Now if someone's listening to the show and they're like, I think I'm familiar with capital gains and taxes, but what is an unrealized capital gain? Exactly. It's a complete made up fairy tale phrase, frankly, that's super far left. I'm going to use the phrase communist because that's what it is. Like it's wealth confiscation. So that's actual communism. It's not an income tax. It is actual communism where you're just taking assets from other people. It's a wealth tax. They say that you have mutual funds and you have a million dollars starting in January 1st of whatever year this log goes into effect. So your basis is a million bucks. If your portfolio doubled from a million to two million because you were really good at picking stocks or the market went up or inflation, frankly, you now have a capital gain of a million dollars. But common sense, what has always been the policy in the US is that, okay, but you don't actually pay taxes until you sell. Because maybe that gain goes down in some years, and maybe all of a sudden you lose money and you're down to 800,000. So you've actually lost some of your principle. You don't pay any taxes until you actually sell because you don't have any money. And that hence the word realize when you realize the profit. Yeah, when you're, yeah. And so what this unrealized capital gains, this BS is that if your portfolio increases by let's say a million dollars, they want to tax that at 25%. So even though you never sold, you don't have any extra money in your checking account. If your portfolio increases by 25%, you would owe $250,000 in taxes, which means you probably have to sell some of those stocks every year just to pay the taxes. So like putting it in a real world example, let's say Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk, you know, Jeff, obviously the vast majority of Jeff J. Bezos' wealth is in Amazon stock. Yeah. If it goes up a ton in value, it would force him to start selling his stock just to pay the taxes, which actually drives down the price for everyone else who owns that stock. And some of the biggest, you know, the biggest shareholders of Amazon stock across the country are pension funds and rumors trying to retire own a bunch of Amazon. So it actually like forces down the market when wealthy people have to do that. I mean, it's, it is probably the most crazy policy proposal ever put forward by any presidential candidate ever. It is so laughable that you could tax. It's, it's a wealth tax. It's basically saying, hey, there's people that are richer than I am and I'm mad at the richer than I am. Did Kamala, did she explain anything more? It was just a talking point. Did she explain how? Because it's like, I think, yeah, it's actually, mutual funds I actually could push back on and say like, you could argue that that's why people like Ross or deferral accounts because you do have to pay taxes as you sell, you know, because a lot of times you're rebalancing and all. Like homes, that's a good example. You're in a home. It appreciate just because it grows and value like now. Does it mean you have any more money? Exactly. And then the great example is if you're you own a company, like technically, someone could say the company's worth X and it grew in value, which that's my hope is that that our wealth grows in value every year. I would not have the liquidity if I had to pay tax on something that I'm not going to realize because if I realized that you would have to you would have to sell part of the company. Right. Which would be like, so my question would be is why isn't there pushback, like crazy pushback? Also, I want to be like for anyone that follows me, knows that I'm a conservative Christian, like to be open-minded. I have people I'm willing to talk on all sides, okay? So I'm not going to try to hide behind me being like, I'm an independent thinker on all these issues. I try to be very open-minded. If you are watching this and you're like, hey, they got something wrong when it comes to like, this is the pitch to why this is good for our country, please reach out. And I would love to have you on and maybe the three of us can talk, okay? So I just want to be very open. Like I'm open to both sides here, but why are there people on the democratic side or just period talking about this? Because I think one of my biggest problems with this election so far is it seems like the issues are border, which trust me, I think both sides would even agree that that's a point that's being made valid. A portion on the other side, which there's a lot of misinformation about like, you know, that deal. But it seems like the talking points are very shallow. Like on the other side, it's like, you know, women, you know, race, all these things, okay? But it's like if we actually look deeper, some of the things that you even mentioned are a big deal no matter who you vote for. Like this could literally affect like America's well-being from a standpoint of like the wealth that we experienced just by being American. And I don't think people realize like how damaging or fragile this could be based on some bad policies. And like it could literally just wipe out the wealth that we've experienced today. I think the reason that Democrats on the left aren't calling her out and aren't questioning the sanity of this policy is the same reason that when Trump says something crazy, usually you don't see Republicans saying, oh, that's a bad idea. I don't agree with that. Like for example, tariffs, right? If you've ever cracked open an economics textbook, you know that tariffs are a bad idea. It's just attacks on consumers, right? So like I plan on voting for Trump in the fall, but I'm also perfectly willing to say where I disagree with him because I'm not just like, oh, I'm voting Republican because Democrats are stupid and yay Republicans like no, like Republicans also have some really, really bad ideas from time to time. And tariffs, tariffs are one of them. I think it's an interesting debate on whether we could fund the government with income taxes versus tariffs. You know, if we got rid of income taxes and replaced it with tariffs, but what we all know is they would never do that. They would just add tariffs on top of all the income taxes coming in. So like that's just one example of something I disagree with Trump on. I don't think that, you know, raising tariffs is good. And just just for the listener who may like not fully understand tariffs, tariffs are like a tax on let's say China on imports. And so it's pretty much making it more expensive to bring things in because as ideas we want made in America, we don't want to quote unquote, steal jobs. What we're essentially doing is you're taking something that would cost the consumer. Hello, five dollars. And now I have to pay eight dollars because hello China's not over whoever's not going to lose money. So they're just going to increase prices, which is a, it's like inflation. It's a, it's a silent tax on everybody. It's basically a silent sales tax that doesn't show up on your receipt as being a sales tax, but that's absolutely what it is. You know, it's like if if Trump or the US government wanted to create more jobs and the TV manufacturing and industry and they're mad that Samsung makes all their TVs in South Korea or that Sony builds things in Japan or you know, whatever they'd say, hey, we're going to put a tariff on any imported TV. It's like, well, guess what? Almost all TVs are imported. They're not made in the USA, right? And so if they slap to huge tariff, essentially, attacks on imported TVs, yes, it might absolutely create jobs in America for Americans to build TVs like made in the USA TVs because now they could compete on more of a level playing field with foreign imports because you're just artificially making those foreign imports more expensive, right? But it means that TVs are now more expensive for Americans. So it's like, do we want to create more American jobs in industries that frankly aren't great jobs? Like those aren't $100,000 of your jobs. They're like low level manufacturing jobs that are not really paying great wages. And so just from a free market perspective, the reason I went down that rabbit hole is that that's an example of like Republicans, Trump in this instance, having a bad idea that all economists disagree, both left and right tariffs are not good for the economy. But you actually do see some Republicans call out Trump saying, hey, I don't agree with that. And here's why you really don't see that on the left. You don't really see that with Democrats. When Kamala says things that are just like crazy, you don't really see a lot of Democrats saying, hey, I disagree with her on that. And here's why. And this is actually two Democrats advantage politically Democrats are much better than Republicans at rallying behind their candidate and not questioning things and just saying, hey, we're going to support her whatever she says. That's not necessarily a good thing because it means that the party drifts more radical over time because no one is ever questioning how good these policies are. It's all about winning. But it means that Democrats have an inherent advantage in winning elections because they're much more team players than Republicans are. And that's just a fact. Like most most Republicans do not rally around their candidate the way that Democrats do and that gives Democrats an advantage. A good example of this is what happened to Joe Biden. I mean, you could never do that number one with Trump. You could never do that with Trump. But most of the time there would be the hypocrisy that like it's interesting. When you think of Democrats, you think of like the one of their talking points is Republicans are going to like steal elections and like, yeah, democracy is going away. And it's like democracy is going away. That's a very interesting talking point as you guys literally booted Joe Biden. Let's come all ahead. Let's call it. It was it is. People vote for her. But yeah, you're essentially making it where like nobody can compete. You literally have RFK who if you had a regular primary would be a part of this thing. You're pushing him out. In fact, you're suing you're suing him in multiple states to kind of lead him out to have him not have a voice, which is another thing I want to talk about after you you share your talking points here is like, why are they you would think if you're a Democrat, you would want to like secretly have RFK junior like help him get support because of just what you just said is like I think he hurts Donald Trump way more than he does. Absolutely does. Absolutely. Then why why is the Democrats making it so difficult for because they they don't like descent and they don't like that he is a fellow Democrat that is like challenging the status quo of the DNC like they don't want there to be dissenting voices that call out their hypocrisy by the way in the same way to be fair that when when Ron Paul ran for president in 2008 in 2012 the RNC completely stamped him out and basically cheated in the Iowa caucuses and a lot of those early states to keep Ron Paul from from winning because he was such an anti establishment candidate that you know wasn't an old country club Republican that they're like we will do anything to prevent him from winning. It's what the DNC did to Bernie a couple years ago where Bernie was actually ahead in a lot of polls but they said absolutely not we can't have Bernie Sanders be the face of the party because I mean he's literally a self about socialist. So yeah, I mean both both parties do it both parties don't like rebel rebel uh challengers but I think it's to the Democrats advantage in electoral politics that they're much better at being team players and ultimately rallying around their candidate for better or worse because Kamala has some truly awful ideas this I mean this thing of like unrealized capital gains again like I don't hesitate saying that's communism and it's a wealth give give the two-minute summary on what price scourging like that yeah so she's she's saying price gouging we're gonna have federal bans on price gouging in economics this is called price controls it's basically the government saying hey you can't charge more than five dollars for eggs or more than eight dollars for milk or more than a dollar for an avocado it's like the federal government from the top down planning what prices should be again like I am not exaggerating this is a literal hallmark well of communist societies and you're thinking in a in a quote-unquote republic democracy kind of deal you can that sounds good like that that's my problem is like you can to an uneducated person that's listening to this you're like oh you get to stick it to the big people and and like they can't raise raise money like or they can't raise prices on things that sounds really good to him like that really does like that sounds like you that sounds great why like if you don't look at history like explain why that's a disaster and like where companies just be like all right we're gonna stop selling or we're gonna first why would we sell something at a loss and lose money and it's also ironic that it's the same party that pushes minimum wage and pushes like you need to be you need to you need to pay people what they're worth and oh by the way you can't charge like so it's like well what's gonna happen yeah absolutely and by the way minimum wage is an example of a price control it's just a a price floor versus a price ceiling right either way you create shortages that's the one sentence answer of the damage of price controls from an from an economic perspective is you create shortages when you you know if you put a price control on you know let's say corn or something you can't charge more than this for you know a bushel of corn or a package of corn however you buy corn I guess at the grocery store I'm not sure what what quantities it sold in but in like agriculture it's usually quoted like bushels right if you put a price control on that you then eliminate the incentive for corn producers corn growers to plant more corn because their profits are limited they're gonna find where they can invest that capital to where they can actually get a reasonable return on capital with rent control rent control destroys any cities that they institute rent control in because if you're telling landlords that hey I don't care how much money you invest in making your properties better by upgrading the electrical the plumbing the wiring the safety systems the sprinklers by upgrading the the courts countertops or the the carpets or whatever that you can only ever charge this amount of rent will you just completely eliminated any incentive for landlords to ever upgrade their properties you're actually incentivizing them to become slumlords because they can't charge what they need to charge to upgrade their properties but also means less construction over the long term because who would put their hard earned money into building apartment you know units or real estate if there's a cap on what they can charge to get their profit out of that project so it always sounds good in theory until you spend two minutes reading an economics book and price controls again price controls were the hallmark of the Soviet Union that is what brought down the Soviet Union is ultimately you cannot plan an economy from the top down you just can't yeah so but here's here's the thing when it comes to quote unquote a democracy you can say whatever you want to say and as long as you get the people to vote for you it's it's almost like I guess what am I trying to say here it's like you can you can be right and you can say hey guys look at history or hey this mathematically doesn't work but the people that will determine this election are not reading economic books they're not listening to this show they're not probably watching much of the news they're reading one or two headlines they're hurting financially most likely they're frustrated at things and they're going to vote on one or two issues yeah I mean what what we need in society are more Republicans conservatives that are willing to call out Trump when he's wrong on economic issues yes and what we need are more Democrats liberals progressives whatever you want to label them who are willing to call out the crazy ideas that Kamala has the problem is that most people are so tribalistic and how they think about politics that it's like Republicans good Democrats bad or Democrats good Republicans bad yeah and they're not actually looking at the actual issues I mean I cannot even overemphasize how terrible of an idea taxing unrealized capital gains is because you're just giving an incentive for people to take money out of the country and invest it elsewhere where it's not going to be just stolen I mean I would go so far to say is unrealized capital gains is just theft it is literally politicians stealing money from people it's not even an income tax because at least with an income tax you can say hey I'm just going to reinvest as much money as possible into back into my business or buying real estate or you know I'm going to try to get my taxable income down to zero by just reinvesting and that actually creates a positive positive side effect of if people don't want to be taxed on their income they then reinvest as much of it as possible so that their you know tax rate is lower that's a good thing for the economy yeah the the the aside effect of an unrealized capital gains tax is that's like well I don't want my my net worth to just be essentially taxed at 25% here so I'm going to take my money out of the United States and pull it out of the stock market pull it out of any businesses I've invested in and go to some other country where they're not taxing me so that pushes the stock market down for everyone down for middle class senior citizens teachers police officers who have pension funds invested in the stock market it would be devastating for the American economy if anything close to this ever passes and this is theoretical why do you think she even taught like why wouldn't she just lie and be a quote unquote moderate and then and then when she gets in office she can do it ever she wants like I think I think I think I think she's showing her true colors Caleb the answer is that she's actually so far left that she thinks that these ideas are somehow moderate yeah like she doesn't realize how crazy radical again it's so I'm going to intentionally use the word communist because her father is a Marxist economics professor like he is a he's an economist who self-identifies as a Marxist so I think she has grown up around these ideas and her circles I mean she's from San Francisco right yeah her circles are so far left politically that she thinks price controls and wealth taxes like literally just saying hey if you're worth 10 million dollars we'd like to take two and a half million every year we're going to take 25% of your net worth just because we can I mean that is communism like I hate throwing that word out because if you were if you were a strategist for the Trump campaign would you you just be hammering the policies because clearly when Trump goes off script and he talks about him being better looking than her or questioning her ethnicity like I don't think that's a I don't I don't think that does much for him no if if if he just focuses on inflation how bad the economy is and reminding people that Kamala is the incumbent Kamala keeps saying she wants hope and change and on day one we're going to tackle inflation it's like what do you mean day one you've been vice president for three and a half years you are the current administration like you need to you need to own the last four years are you're doing if you you know if you want to claim that you've accomplished anything so if Trump does that he'll he'll win so we're talking about RFK earlier if RFK were to endorse Trump I think Trump probably wins the election if they can work work together because RFK does have kind of a middle independent minded coalition of voters that are probably there are probably more independent minded do you think if RFK endorses Trump how much do you think that like because I feel like there's a lot of people that just will not vote for Trump period and it's interesting that we're talking to you because you I mean we're friends I know you're very critical Trump very critical which that's what I appreciate I appreciate the people that can not be like so tribal they can very much think independently but you I've seen you go from no I'm not going to vote for Trump for to actually voting for him to now like even if RFK junior were to stay in the like you would I mean you're in Florida so really does not matter at the end of the day but like you would put your energy behind Trump mainly because RFK junior does not have a chance and the thought of losing there's a lot at stake and so where do you see a lot of your friends who are maybe pro RFK junior what if RFK junior was like hey I'm endorsing Trump I'm going to be part of his campaign do you think that would do it for most people the air and Rogers of the world like do you think they would just get in line or do you think they would just not vote I think most people not all of them because obviously some RFK you know supporters are certainly going to vote for Kamala and that's you know that's fine um most of them as in a majority right will I think vote for Trump if RFK endorses endorses Trump and Trump says hey here's what RFK will be in my administration he'll be the head of the FDA or he'll be the head of you know whatever um like that would put a certain energy behind his behind his uh you know campaign so I I think it'd be a really positive thing if you want Trump how many how many there there are Republicans there are some Republicans that were at the DNC and there's some Republicans that are like never trumpers how I know some personally people that I know and that's the thing you're going to vote for for Democrats but aren't going to vote for Trump I think maybe Mike Pence might be a great example of this sure how how many of those people are out there and how damaging could that be because that is one thing in all fairness Trump is so like you have an opinion on Trump whether you like it or not and there's some people from an ethical standpoint or there's some people that are just like I cannot vote for a man who's so narcissistic so like and so like they have these beliefs and then just like I can't do it do you think they end up when when it's all said and done when they start seeing like the consequences do you think they just get in line like most people of like you got to take I think I think at least I can't speak forever on but my intellectual journey in terms of how I perceive American politics has really evolved in the last five years um I mean I've always been into the ideas I've always cared about the philosophy and the economics and but I think I've turned a corner in how how I perceive my relationship with politics in the last five years um five years ago I was like I took pride in being the super principled guy that won't vote for the lesser of two evils and I believe my principles and if let's say some random third party candidate who's gonna get one percent of the vote if they agree with my principles all vote for that person and then I kind of realized I forget where I read this or who I heard this from so I can't attribute this to someone unfortunately because I honestly just don't remember where I first heard this but I I realized that politics like American electoral politics who you vote for for president who you vote for for Congress senator whatever you're a governor it's not a philosophy debate it's a popularity contest and so you should vote for the candidate who gives your ideas the best chance of winning like which candidate gives your idea the best chance of getting 50 plus one in an election and winning because it's it's the what what matters is what's the best version of your ideas that can get elected it's not notice it's not what's the best idea it's what's the best version of your idea that can get elected and so when you kind of unplug yourself from this political matrix and you realize that like okay like I believe America should not have income taxes we didn't have income taxes for basically the first 150 years of the country and we were fine right we need to radically cut government spending we need to balance the federal budget um you know that means probably pretty big cuts across the board to the military social security medicare you know like we need to really look at how much debt we're going into and confront the reality of that of like what type of debt situation are we leaving for our kids right um however I know that no politician who runs on that in 2024 or beyond is going to get elected so even though that's what I believe that we have to accomplish all these things what's the best version of that idea that can actually get elected and we start there and then the other you know years where it's not an election year yeah we talk about culture we talk about ideas and the philosophy and we absolutely have those debates but when it's an election yeah you don't need to feel like you're selling out if you vote for the best version of your ideas that can win yeah the two two two things to just say off of that like a good example is if Trump um would say yeah our our fk can be in inner you know we're in our administration like and if you're a fan of some of the ideas that rf k junior talks about it it's like yeah you might not love Trump but the if you care about the ideas it's like you can you can vote for rf k junior if you want but like that that voting for rf k junior is actually less effective than voting for trump absolutely elected will give rf k more of the voice and absolutely and so the uh the uh the uh same thing is true i want to point this out because this isn't some like conservative conspiracy theory the same thing is true if you're on the political left if you're listening to the show and you're like hey maybe i'm a Bernie Sanders supporter and i think we should move more progressive more socialist in our economic policies it's like well if Bernie Sanders isn't going to win the primary and Bernie Sanders isn't going to be the candidate you should absolutely be willing to vote for biden or vote for kamala if they say hey Bernie Sanders will be given a spot in my in my administration because that moves the conversation closer to where where you believe so politics is a it's politics is the art of the possible right it's what's the best version of your ideas that can win um speaking of this idea i want to circle back to something we talked about because i want to share a real world example with you of how damaging unrealized capital gains are because i don't know about you but i hate rambling about candidates like kamala versus like that is just so emotionally nauseating it's like you know all politicians suck in both parties some of them just suck less than others right that's kind of how i think about politics so let's talk about the actual ideas this unrealized capital gains this was done in Norway a couple years ago so we're not talking theory here this was done in norway where just like kamala is proposing it was only applied to the top one percent you know like we're only going to tax the you know multi-millionaires and billionaires and they implemented an unrealized you know well tax which is what kamala is proposing more people fled norway like literally just left the country with all their money in one year in uh in uh 2022 then had previously left in the 13 years combined so they thought that this would actually raise over a hundred million dollars of new tax revenue because you know they'd be just essentially stealing all the wealth from these rich people and they thought it would bring in an extra hundred million to pay for all these you know new government services whatever uh it actually tax revenues went down by five hundred million so the government was substantially worse off than before which obviously means they had to raise taxes on the rest of the population to cover that five hundred million dollars all the people who just left when they started taxing their income and norway is a first world country so i'm not using some example of like a sub-saharan african tribe right like norway is a a first world country that's comparable to united states right so this has been done before and that's what happened the difference is that the united states economy is you know orders of magnitude larger than norway so the economic destruction that this would create would have ripple effects across the world if the united states started taxing unreal i i like basically if you become a wealthy successful person it would mean that your number one priority every year isn't how can i save and invest money and be productive and be entrepreneurial and create value for people your number one priority every year is how can i dodge taxes and if the smartest most ambitious entrepreneurial people in the world if they're number one priority every day when they wake up is what creative shenanigans can i do to dodge taxes society is worse off for that than if you just gave them a more reasonable tax rate and let them go build companies and innovate scientific ideas and engineering ideas you know it would it would be it would be a tragedy if they did that and we have norway to look at as a recent example just in the last two years so what do you what do you have nightmares about Tim is having cold sweats at night thinking about unrealized capital gains and price gouging and the ideas and i i do agree that those these are not things that are like the maybe the biggest talking points they might soon become talking points and i hope they they are they're more talked about but i appreciate i appreciate you i want to get just feedback from our audience like do you like conversations like this i will tell you that while this channel talk a lot about you know investments insurance philosophies there i tend i tend to be very interested in politics and not not the the you know trump good comelo bad like that but like i like talking about ideas i really like like these conversations is what i have offline in a lot of cases and i love talking to people that will have all different kinds of beliefs because there's so much that we can learn through this so if you're if you appreciate this if you're like hey i would appreciate a segment on this channel or we're talking about current events talking about you know talking about issues please let me know because obviously i want this to be valuable and and and if a bunch of people are like no don't do this don't do this Tim we might just have to start a new channel and have these conversations at it but i i really do believe and hope that especially as um we're coming around the corner to a lot of a lot of uh let's just say a lot of a lot of newsworthy talking points i would love to have a segment where we're just jamming about that i would love at another time to talk about interest rates and it's it's funny i this is another thing i admire about you you have the most to gain by lower interest rates um you own a mortgage company uh that you know makes money off-helling people get houses and and doing mortgages for them but yet you also can be objective and say like hey just slashing interest rates may or may not be the right thing when we talked uh previously you talked about how interest rates were gonna be like that they were gonna stay or go up and now almost all you know everyone's talking about them coming down so that's we don't have time today about love to talk about that and i would love to just stay just have a good pulse of like what's going on currently and talking about how this relates to us and then how this relates to like if you're watching this and have a family if you're watching this and have a business if you're watching this um and want to grow or become wealthy like these these ideas matter so we can talk about strategies all day long but a lot of times strategies are predicated on an environment that allows us to be able to do them and like even like we didn't even talk about this but like the tax and jobs act sunsetting yeah like that alone and again that alone is so so so so so like it's a huge deal such a big deal that i think we need to talk more about it and i love how it is so talking about what's actually sunsetting i'm interviewing Ken Keeze who's like one of the biggest lobbyists and like he was like one of the people that helped the qualified income tax um you know benefit that's probably arguably the greatest benefit to a small business owner and i'm going to be asking questions about like what's like what's on the table what happens with the sunset and like get his opinion from uh trying to be as objective as possible because i believe we need to understand this and i don't believe there's enough people talking about these subjects and i think there needs to be more conversations about that so any any final uh yeah do you know say yeah any uh i can't talk anything that you want to say before we wrap this thing up yeah i have about an hour of additional thoughts but uh two quick things uh the summer rule has just been triggered um in economics i can't remember uh the economist first name who came up with this but their last name is som s a h m and the someral is a very very accurate predictor of recessions and it's like a a last minute predictor so it's not like oh we might have a recession in the next two years it's no it's usually when the someral is triggered a recession happens very shortly what the someral is is that if the unemployment rate in the united states or the uh 90 day moving average of the unemployment rate raises more than 0.5 percent over its previous 12 month low so basically if a unemployment increases by more than 0.5 percent you know in in in a year's time essentially uh a recession will happen very soon and we we triggered that about two weeks ago um and so the rate that unemployment is increasing right now it is incredibly likely incredibly likely that at some point in the next six months we will be descending into an official recession because unemployment never increases that rapidly all of a sudden and doesn't pull the economy into a recession so i don't have any opinions on a share on that i just want to state that that that's probably something that's going to happen in the next three to six uh months they also revised the job numbers from the first part of the year and they're most economists uh like the big banks like you know city and Goldman Sachs and whatnot are saying that there's actually up to a million fewer jobs in the u.s. than we thought we created when they looked further into the data this year so a million so the economy in other words is actually much worse than even they thought it was once they issued the revised reports and then the second thing i just want to end saying is that really the only way to discuss these issues talking about unemployment talking about politics talking about unrealized capital gains you know all these various topics we've bounced around on this session today a long form interview like going on youtube having a podcast where you talk for an hour you talk for two hours you know like on the Joe Rogan show or whatever and many other shows like that they talk for two three hours right that's the way we should be talking about political issues social issues economic issues in this country it's too our detriment as a society that we've reduced political discourse to these stupid debates where candidates can talk for 60 seconds because yeah you can't actually get into the issues and the inter the intricacies and the nuance if you're just bound to a 60 second sound bite and so i would love for Kamala and Trump and RFK and in any future elections you know four years from now to years from now for it to become more of the norm that hey you guys both go on the Joe Rogan show and you talk for two hours or whatever other show right like a long a long format interview so we can actually really hear what you believe not just the 60 second sound bite that you rehearsed for a CNN debate you know we would be way better off and I think that's true whether you're liberal or conservative progressive libertarian if we could learn more about these candidates in long form youtube interviews like that would be really cool yeah and there's one there's one candidate that tends to be going going on lots of shows and there's one candidate that's not speaking anything outside of like a script and that should be telling and then the other thing that is like probably the biggest issue for me is speech is and and and I want to be critical on both sides there are I feel like Republicans can be very hypocritical very hypocritical and it comes with this because they're all pro pro speech until maybe things that they don't they don't like and then they then they team up or like say this should be quote unquote band but overall the Republican conservative people are way more open to dialogue way more open to let's hear all sides like for example like Joe Rogan maybe he'll have Donald Trump on the podcast or not but I think there's a sentiment of like hey I don't necessarily want to help someone win kind of deal but like I would love nothing more for Kamala to go on Joe Rogan for three out like that would be totally I would love to be clear Joe Rogan has this reputation now of like oh he's right wing because he he knows Elon Musk or he's interviewed people that are right wing is like Joe Rogan has publicly stated he voted for Bernie Sanders yeah Joe Rogan is not a right wing conservative he is publicly stated I voted for Bernie Sanders and he also has said he likes RFK who is a Democrat right so it's just a complete myth that someone like Joe Rogan is this right wing but the point is I agree with you around the more conversations and absolutely that's that's my hope is and and and the thing that is very damaging is is if someone gets in power and then their goal is to stop conversation to to ban people from talking to sit like you know put labels on someone to try to cut speech out I think in short term you can say like hey it's it's a public safety you're gonna be better off these people are damaging you and you can put labels on people put labels on people put labels on people and the labels might even be right like there's I'm not pro like I don't want to agree with everything that's being said on the internet I do believe that it's a very slippery slope when you determine what is right what is wrong and and you just look at history and say like that that's a really really slippery slope and so if there's one issue and I care about a lot of issues there's one issue that I would put the stake in the ground it's like pro speech rather than less speech and my hope is I'm an example of that hence I'm opening up my platform to have all kinds of conversations because I want more talk versus less talk and I believe we are better off if ideas get shared and not just in your little whether you're left wing right wing progressive libertarian if you believe your ideas are better than your opponents ideas you should want to be in as many debates and discussions and interviews as as as possible and I think it's like you said Caleb it's very telling when certain candidates whether they're on the right or the left right when a candidate doesn't want to do debates they don't want to do town halls they don't want to appear on a two hour long form podcast that kind of tells you that they're they're like hiding something right you know because if you're excited about your ideas and you think that your ideas are what's best for society you should want to talk about them in in detail yeah that's one reason I'm optimistic about Gen Z and it's I mean mostly I probably sound really pessimist to someone who listens to this episode right but one reason I'm long term optimistic about the country is that Gen Z is so much more demanding of transparency and authenticity that as the as the voters right now who are like 21 years old 25 years old as they get a little bit older I think it'll be unacceptable within five years 10 years that that presidential candidate or someone running for governor senate whatever that it would be it'll be viewed as unacceptable that they're not willing to go on podcasts and be interviewed because people will demand a certain level of transparency that right now we're we're letting politicians get away with on in in both parties yeah so I think that's a that's a good thing that we can look forward to culturally to end this on a yeah on a positive note Tim thank thank you again we want to hear from you in the comments if you have subjects that you want Tim and I have talked about please please also put that Tim thank you and we'll see you next week